「元返しになる仕組みを知りたい！」
「単勝1.0倍は賭けない方がいいの？」
「単勝1.0倍は危険なの？」
競馬好きなら、元返しは気になりますよね。
この記事では、元返しになる仕組みや元返しの対策について解説します。
また、過去に元返しとなった4つのレースを振り返ります。
単勝オッズ1.0倍が危ない理由も解説するので、ぜひ最後までお読みください。
元返しって何？
元返しとはプラスマイナスゼロの状態を指す用語
競馬の元返しとは、オッズが1.0倍になり、100円で買った馬券が的中しても100円が返ってくるだけの無意味な馬券になること。
勝っても儲けがないばかりか、はずすと100円損をするという「リスクしかない」残念な馬券です。
なぜ元返しになるの？
競馬の払戻金は、例えば単勝の売り上げが100万円あった場合に、売り上げ全体の20%の20万円をJRAが運営費として差し引きます。
残り80万円を的中した票数で分け合う仕組みです。
この時の20%という割合を控除率と言い、競馬の場合は馬券ごとに決められています。
総評数の80％を的中馬券が占めていると、倍率は1.0倍となり「元返し」となるのです。
すべての投票が1頭に集中した場合でも、倍率は0.8倍とはならず1.0倍。
的中した場合には、元返しとなるのです。
外れた場合は誰も的中していないので、特払いで80円の払い戻しが受けられます。
全プレイヤーの賭け金を一度集約し、一定の控除額を収入源とする運営側は、絶対に利益がマイナスになることはありません。
過去の元返し（単勝1.0倍）のレース
過去の元返しとなった重賞レースを振り返ってみましょう。
・1994年10月16日京都新聞杯（単勝支持率77.9％/ナリタブライアン）
・1995年2月5日きさらぎ賞（単勝支持率74.4％/スキーキャプテン）
・1995年3月12日阪神大賞典（単勝支持率75.2％/ナリタブライアン）
・2005年10月23日菊花賞（単勝支持率79.0％/ディープインパクト）
単勝で1.0倍を記録したJRAの重賞レースは、上記の4レースだけです。
この後に解説するJRAプラスが導入されてからは、単勝1.0倍の重賞レースは1度も出現していません。
1994年10月16日京都新聞杯
単勝1.0倍でナリタブライアンがまさかの敗退！
共同通信杯を快勝し、スプリングステークスではド派手なレースを見せつけて圧勝。
皐月賞ではコースレコードを更新。
日本ダービーでさえも格の違いを見せつけたナリタブライアン。
そして迎えた京都新聞杯。ナリタブライアンの単勝オッズはJRA重賞初の1.0倍。
阪神芝2200ｍ。
4歳牡馬10頭がゲートを飛び出す。
テイエムイナズマがハナを切り、番手を取りに行ったのはメルシーステージ。
6枠6番のナリタブライアンは、中団から後ろあたりでスタンド前を通過していく。
3コーナーを迎え、ナリタブライアンが先行集団との距離を縮めていくと、場内から湧き上がる大歓声。
4コーナーを回り、直線を向く。
メルシーステージがテイエムイナズマを交わし、外から詰め寄るエアダブリン。
内を選択したスターマン。
大外から、じりじりと伸びるナリタブライアン。
しかし、直線に入ってから、いつもの弾けるような伸びは見られませんでした。
順位は上げていったナリタブライアンでしたが、内から追い上げてきたスターマンに抜かれてしまい、2着惜敗という結果に。
単勝1.0倍のナリタブライアンが負けた！
ファンも実況も言葉を失うほど衝撃的なレースだったのです。
競馬ファンの記憶には、今も鮮明に残っていることでしょう。
スターマン、1994年の京都新聞杯を制す。
なぜナリタブライアンは負けたのか！
夏を北海道で過ごし、迎えた秋初戦の京都新聞杯。
その夏、北海道が猛暑に見舞われたため、調整が万全ではなかったことも伝えられました。
1995年2月5日きさらぎ賞
外だ！白い馬体だ！3番のスキーキャプテン！ ケンタッキーへ夢が広がる！
前走の朝日杯3歳S（現在の朝日杯FS）では、フジキセキの2着に敗れたスキーキャプテンでしたが、単勝1.0倍の圧倒的1番人気に支持されました。
レースがはじまると、武豊騎手とスキーキャプテンは後方をキープ。
直線に入ると、大外に進路を取ったスキーキャプテンに対し、テレビカメラは一瞬先頭を走る内の馬を捉え、スキーキャプテンは画面の外に。
しかし、スキーキャプテンは直線半ばであっという間に先頭に立ったのです。
武豊騎手を背に、上がり最速34秒7の脚で後方からの差し切り勝ち。
9頭立てとはいえ、異例の単勝元返しがその強さを物語っていました。
外国産馬であるスキーキャプテンには日本に目標とするべきレースはなく、社台レースホース会員の理解を得てケンタッキーダービー（GI）に挑戦することになりました。
スキーキャプテンは日本調教馬として、初めてケンタッキーダービーに出走したことでも知られています。
1995年3月12日阪神大賞典
ブライアンに陰りなし！
ナリタブライアンが3連勝で8つ目の重賞タイトルを手に入れる！
「いよいよナリタブライアンが始動します」という杉本アナの一言で幕を開けた京都11R。
レースが動いたのは2コーナー付近。
タマモハイウェイが掛かり気味に進出し、ナリタブライアンを交わして一気に先頭集団へ。
ナリタブライアンは、泰然自若の構えで4～5番手をキープ。
三冠馬がようやく動いたのは3コーナーに差し掛かった辺りでした。
淀の下り坂で加速する三冠馬の姿を杉本アナは追い続けました。
4コーナー手前、抜群の手応えで先頭に躍り出ると、直線では後続との差は開く一方。
ナリタブライアンが次元の違う末脚を炸裂させて突き抜け、最後は後続に7馬身の差をつけてゴールしたのです。
2着馬からブービー10着馬までが1秒0差だったこのレースで、ナリタブライアンがハギノリアルキングにつけたタイム差は1秒1。
ほぼノーステッキでの完勝でした。
しかし、ナリタブライアンは股関節炎を発症。
春を全休すると長いスランプに陥りました。
2005年10月23日菊花賞
大外から足音も軽やかにディープインパクトと武豊！
3冠達成！
勝ち時計は3分4秒6！
道中、ディープインパクトは終始中団のインコースでレースを進めました。
馬群を先導したのは9番人気シャドウゲイトで、アドマイヤジャパンが2番手をキープ。
3コーナーでシャドウゲイトとアドマイヤジャパンが後続を大きく引き離しました。
4コーナーを過ぎて直線に入る頃にはアドマイヤジャパンの独走態勢に。
しかし、馬場の真ん中に持ち出したディープインパクトが一完歩ごとに詰め寄り、ゴール手前でアドマイヤジャパンを捕らえゴールイン。
単勝1.0倍の断然人気に推されたディープインパクトが期待に応え快勝。
史上6頭目の3歳牡馬クラシック3冠制覇を達成したのでした。
単勝・複勝共に1.0倍のオッズとなり、単勝馬券と複勝馬券が元返しとなりました。
複勝の元返しは時々ありますが、単勝では珍しいことです。
支持率は79.03％となり、1963年のメイズイ（6着馬）の83.2％に次ぐ史上最高支持率。
ディープインパクトの人気は絶大で、的中しても払い戻しを行わずに、的中馬券を記念に取っておく人もいたそうです。
今は元返しがほとんどない？
過去に元返しとなったレースをご紹介しましたが、今は元返しがほとんどありません。
その理由について解説します。
・JRAがプラス10を導入
・単勝オッズが1.0倍以下になる事はあるの？
JRAがプラス10を導入
JRAプラス10とは、「すべてのレース」「すべての投票法」において通常の払い戻しが100円の元返しとなる場合に、10円を上乗せして110円で払い戻すこと。
JRAプラス10は、2008年から施行された仕組みです。
そのため大抵の場合は上乗せ分で倍率は、1.1倍が最低倍率になるケースが多くなります。
プラス10導入後にオッズ1.0倍は1/10に減っています。
単勝オッズが1.0倍以下になる事はあるの？
1.0倍が出ない訳ではなく、JRAプラス10が適用されないレースが存在します。
JRAプラス10が適用されない場合とは、特定の馬に売り上げの91%以上集中してしまったケースです。
特定の馬番号・組番号に特に著しく人気が集中した場合、「100円元返し」となる可能性がございます。
注記：投票法ごとの「払戻金総額」と、「上乗せすべき金額の総額」の合計が「売得金の総額」を超える場合には、競馬法附則第5条第3項の規定により、「100円元返し」となります（この場合には、オッズ、払戻金は「1.0倍」「100円」で表示いたします。）
引用元：https://www.jra.go.jp/kouza/plus10/
単勝オッズ1.0倍は危ない？
単勝オッズ1.0倍になる馬は人気馬の証です。
実力・実績が抜けているから人気があり、支持されています。
しかし競馬に絶対はありません。
鉄板レースが外れる理由を解説します。
まず1000mや1200mのスプリントレースにおけるスタートです。
もしスタートに出遅れると、挽回に体力を消耗し、ゴールまでに挽回しきれない場合があります。
スピード自慢の馬であっても、出遅れは致命的なミスになることも。
出遅れが起こる原因として、馬の性格、足が滑るなどのトラブルや騎手のミスなどが考えられます。
完全なアクシデントであれば、予測は難しいでしょう。
スプリント戦において、最低倍率1倍台の競走馬の勝率はそこまで高くないのです。
アクシデントには、馬場状態も挙げられます。
馬場の状態で最も重要になるのが、水分含有率です。
その状態は4段階で表わされ、水分含有率の低い方から「良」「稍重」「重」「不良」となっています。
芝コースの馬場の状態が悪くなると、地面が柔らかくなるため、馬場を力強く蹴れるパワーや、豊富なスタミナが必要になります。
同じ距離でも不良馬場の場合では、タイムが数秒遅くなるのが普通です。
砂が主体のダートコースでは、馬場の状態が悪化すると芝コースとは逆の現象が起こります。水分を含むことで馬場が硬くなり、タイムが早くなるのです。
道悪のダートではスピードがより問われます。
不良馬場や重馬場であると、波乱はおきやすくなるでしょう。
馬場状態が悪い場合も、最低倍率1倍台の競走馬の勝率はそこまで高くないのです。
次に挙げられるのは、長期休養明けです。
競走馬は疲れが溜まってきたら、放牧という形で長期休養に入ります。
休み明けの馬はレース感覚がまだ戻っていないので、全能力を発揮することができません。
単勝1.0倍のナリタブライアンが惜敗したのは、長期休養明けが原因とも言われています。
まとめ
元返しの仕組みや対策について解説しました。
過去に元返しとなったレースを振り返ると、単勝・複勝共に1.0倍のオッズとなり、単勝馬券と複勝馬券が元返しとなったものもありました。
最後は、単勝オッズ1.0倍の鉄板レースが外れる理由を解説しました。
オッズの仕組みに理解を深めて、レース予想に役立ててください。
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