「少ない金額で馬券を当てたい！」
「高配当の馬券を当てたいけれど、なかなか当たらない…」
「効率よく馬券を予想する方法はないの？」
競馬を楽しんでいる方の多くは、一獲千金を目指して買い目を予想しているのではないでしょうか。
しかしやみくもに馬券を買っていては、なかなか予想は的中しません。
そこで本記事では、最も効率よく買い目を決められる「三連複フォーメーション」について解説します。
三連複フォーメーションの考え方や、メリットとデメリットを紹介しているので、ぜひ参考にしてみてください。
三連複フォーメーションとは？
三連複フォーメーションとは、三連複の組み合わせを決める方法の一つです。
三連複はレースの上位3位までに入る馬を選んで購入する方法ですが、その組み合わせは数百通りにもなります。
できるだけ少ない金額で買い目を決めるために、三連複フォーメーションを利用します。
上位3位を①~⑤と予想した場合、三連複フォーメーションで馬券を買う手順は次の通りです。
① 1〜3着をそれぞれ1頭以上予想します。
(例)1着目：① 2着目：②、③ 3着目：②、③、④、⑤
② 1着目を軸に2着目の組み合わせを決めます。
(例)①-②、①-③
③ ②で決めた組み合わせに3着目を組み合わせます。
(例)①-②-③、①-②-④、①-②-⑤、①-③-④、①-③-⑤
考えられる組み合わせは全部で10通りですが、三連複フォーメーションで買うと5通りまで絞り込めます。
三連複ボックスとの違いは？
三連複の買い目を決める方法にはフォーメーションの他に「ボックス」もあります。
三連複ボックスは、上位3位までに入る馬で考えられる、すべての組み合わせを買う方法です。
上位3位を①~⑤と予想した場合は次の10通りが買い目になります。
・①-②-③
・①-②-④
・①-②-⑤
・①-③-④
・①-③-⑤
・①-④-⑤
・②-③-④
・②-③-⑤
・②-④-⑤
・③-④-⑤
三連複ボックスでは的中確率が低い馬券もいくつか買わなければなりません。
買い目が多ければ予想が的中する確率も上がりますが、馬券の購入費用も増えるため、的中時の利益が少なくなります。
少しでも金額を抑えて買い目を予想したい方は、三連複フォーメーションがオススメです。
三連複フォーメーションオススメの買い方
買い目を考えるときに、1頭目から3頭目まではどのように決めればいいのでしょうか。
まずは軸馬を決めてからフォーメーションを考えます。
フォーメーションは軸馬の数によって異なるため、軸馬の数ごとにオススメのフォーメーションを紹介します。
今回紹介する内容は下記の3点です。
・1-3-6フォーメーション
・1-1-10フォーメーショ
・2-4-8フォーメーション
それぞれを詳しく説明していきます。
1-3-6フォーメーション
1頭目に本命を1頭、2頭目に対抗馬を3頭、3頭目に穴馬を追加した6頭を選ぶのが1-3-6フォーメーションです。
明確な軸馬が1頭いる時にオススメのフォーメーションで、2頭目に2〜4番人気の馬を持ってくると、さらに的中しやすくなります。
高額配当を狙う場合は、2頭目に人気が少ない穴馬を1頭絡めてもいいでしょう。
2頭目に穴馬を持ってくることで買い目が本命-穴-穴になり、高額配当が期待できます。
1-3-6フォーメーションは買い目が12通りと少ないですが、本命から高配当の穴まで手広く馬券を購入できるフォーメーションです。
1-1-10フォーメーション
1頭目と2頭目に本命を1頭ずつ、3頭目に好きな10頭を選んで買い目を決めるのが1-1-10フォーメーションです。
軸馬が2頭いる時にオススメのフォーメーションです。
軸馬が2頭ならば三連単を狙った方がいいと思うかもしれませんが、実力が拮抗している場合、1着と2着を決めるのに迷いが生じます。
着順が関係ない三連複は、三連単よりも買い目を絞りやすく、3頭目も幅広く設定できるため穴馬を設定して高配当を狙うことが可能です。
穴馬が2着に入り込んだ場合も、三連複であればハズレにならないのはメリットといえるでしょう。
2-4-8フォーメーション
1頭目に2頭、2頭目に4頭、3頭目に8頭を選んで買い目を決めるのが2-4-8フォーメーションです。
本命だけでなく穴も狙いたい方にオススメのフォーメーションです。
1頭目を本命と穴馬の2頭にすることで、本命だけでなく穴の買い目を作って一獲千金を狙えます。
他のフォーメーションと比べ購入点数が多いため投資金額が増える分、的中率や高額配当の可能性が高くなります。
人気馬のみで決着がついた場合は配当が低くなりますが、荒れるレースでは高配当が狙えるフォーメーションです。
明確な軸馬が2頭いる場合は、1頭目に軸馬の2頭を選ぶことで本命の取りこぼしを防げます。
2-4-8フォーメーションでは、出走馬の実力差やコンディションを見極めて、軸馬と穴馬を組み合わせることが重要です。
三連複フォーメーションのメリットデメリット
三連複フォーメーションをうまく活用するためには、メリットとデメリットをしっかりと理解しなければなりません。
出走馬の実力差によっては、違う馬券の方がより高い配当を得られる可能性もあります。
三連複フォーメーションの特徴を理解して、効果的な買い目を考えられるようになりましょう。
メリット
三連複フォーメーションのメリットは、買い目を効果的に絞れることです。
三連複は比較的当たりやすい馬券ですが、軸馬を決めなければ的中率は下がります。
軸馬を決めると買い目を絞り込めるうえに穴馬を組み込みやすくなるため、少額でも的中率が高くなり高配当も狙えます。
明らかに実力差がある場合は三連単も狙いやすいですが、実力差がほとんどなく予想しにくいレースでは三連複がオススメです。
三連複フォーメーションは、着順予想が必要ない三連複の特徴を活かした買い目の決め方といえるでしょう。
デメリット
三連複フォーメーションのデメリットは、オッズによって配当が低い場合があることです。
着順不問の三連複は、着順予想が必須の馬単や三連単に比べて的中確率が高くなります。
当てるのが難しい馬単や三連単よりも、三連複の配当は低くなりがちですが、当たりやすいがゆえに損をしにくいともいえます。
ハイリターンを求める方には物足りないかもしれませんが、確実にリターンが欲しい方には三連複フォーメーションがオススメです。
三連複フォーメーションが最強の理由
三連複フォーメーションが最強といわれる理由は、少ない金額で適切な買い目を選べるからです。
馬券は全部で9種類あり、券種によって的中率や配当金額が異なります。
的中率が高い券種は配当額が低く、的中率が低い券種は配当額が高いことがほとんどです。
中でも三連複は予想難度が高いといわれており、配当金額は平均で約20,000円となります。
着順不問とはいえ上位3頭を選ばなければならないため、単馬や馬連に比べ配当金額は圧倒的に高いです。
しかし三連単ほど高額な配当ではないので、買い目を増やしすぎると投資金額が回収できません。
そこで、三連複フォーメーションを活用して買い目を絞りながら、的中率を上げることが重要になります。
以上がローリスクハイリターンで競馬を楽しむために、三連複フォーメーションが欠かせない理由です。
三連複がオススメのレース
・重賞レース
・新人戦
三連複フォーメーションは予想が難しいレースと相性がいいですが、具体的にはどのレースが予想しづらいのでしょうか。
競馬はどのレースにも出走条件が設けられており、性別・年齢・勝利数などで出馬できるレースが異なります。
出走馬の実力が拮抗している重賞レースと新人戦は予想が難しいので、三連複がオススメです。
重賞レース
数ある競馬のレースの中でも最高位の重賞レースは勝利数の条件が厳しく、いくつものレースを勝ち上がらなければ出馬できないハイレベルなレースです。
重賞レースは、どの出走馬もレベルが高く、実力差が小さいために予想が難しい特徴があります。
そこで買い目を絞るのに有効なのが、三連複フォーメーションです。
着順を決めなくてもよい三連複は予想しづらいレースにこそ実力を発揮します。
軸馬と穴馬を効果的に組み合わせた買い目を作ることで、コスパよく馬券を購入できるでしょう。
新人戦
新人戦は出馬経験のない馬が出走するため、前情報が少なく予想しづらい特徴があります。
また新人戦は出走数が少ないため、買い目を絞りやすい特徴もあります。
三連複フォーメーションは、予想がしづらくても買い目を絞り込みやすいレースと非常に相性がよいです。
出走数が少ない場合、買い目を広げると予想が的中してもプラスになりにくいので、三連複フォーメーションをうまく活用して買い目を絞るといいでしょう。
まとめ
三連複フォーメーションを紹介しましたが、いかがだったでしょうか。
ある程度競馬を楽しんできて、難しい馬券で当てたいと考える方は、ぜひ三連複フォーメーションに挑戦してみてください。
三連複フォーメーションは買い目が少ないため、少額で馬券を購入できます。
競馬の醍醐味でもある高配当を狙えるのも、三連複フォーメーションの魅力です。
三連複でなかなか結果を出せない方は、三連複フォーメーションを活用してみてください。
レースとの相性もありますが、軸馬を決めることで勝率は大きく変わります。
三連複フォーメーションを活用して、競馬をより楽しみましょう。
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