「雨でも競馬はやるの？」
「中止になる条件は？」
「雨天時の競馬は難しい」
このように思う方もいるでしょう。
雨天での競馬は、馬場状態が悪いレースは荒れやすいため予想がし難いと言われています。
逆に、馬場状態を理解して、あらかじめ荒れるであろうレース展開を予想できれば、雨天時の予想が得意になることも可能です。
この記事では、雨天時に『理解しておくべきこと』や『抑えておくべきポイント』などを紹介・解説していきます。
ぜひ最後まで読んでください。
雨天時の馬場状態を理解しよう
まずは雨天時には、以下4種類の馬場の状態を理解しましょう。
・良（りょう）
・稍重（ややおも）
・重（おも）
・不良（ふりょう）
では、それぞれを説明していきます。
良（りょう）
言葉の通り、馬場の状態が良好であるということを指します。
芝・ダートを対象に、水分をほとんど含んでない状態のことで、馬場が良の場合は馬の力を100％発揮できると言われており、馬の実力がはっきりと分かるでしょう。
稍重（ややおも）
良場と比べ若干水分が含まれた状態のことを指します。
レースの展開・結果に大きな差が生じることはありませんが、スタミナのない馬や脚に自信のない馬にとっては厳しいレースになり得るでしょう。
重（おも）
場に含まれている水分量が上記2つの状態に比べさらに多くなり、出走する馬にかかる負担は大きくレース展開が読みにくくなります
逃げや先行のような序盤からスピードを頼りに走行するスタイルの馬にとっては本来の力を発揮できないような悪状態です。
不良（ふりょう）
不良馬場は、地面に最も水分が含まれている状態です。
馬場の状態は最悪で、ダートコースになると水溜りが出来てしまうほどです。
ここ近年では、国内に存在する競馬場で不良馬場と呼ばれるほど場が悪化することは珍しいですが、もしも不良場のレースの場合はどんなに人気な馬であっても、評判通りの結果を出すことが難しく、レースが大荒れする可能性があるのがこの不良馬場です。
雨天時に抑えるべきポイント3選
雨天時に競馬をする際には、以下の3つのポイントを抑えておきましょう。
・先行馬を軸に考える
・過去のデータを確認する
・騎手に注目する
それぞれを詳しく説明していきます。
先行馬を軸に考える
雨天のような馬場の状態が悪い時には馬のスタミナや脚力が重要になってきます。
特に芝コースではその能力が求められます。
そして、競馬には「逃げ・先行・差し・追い」の4つの走行タイプがあり、雨天時には先行馬が有利であるというデータがあります。
なぜ先行が有利かというと、状態の悪い地面で走り続けることでスタミナや脚力が無くなっていくので、その前に走り切ってしまうということが理由として挙げられます。
他にも、馬場の悪い時に差しや追い馬の場合は、前を走行している馬を最終コーナーから直線になる所では抜きにくいという理由もあります。
過去のデータを確認する
過去のデータを基にある程度の予想を立てることができます。
出走する馬の過去データを見て、もしも過去に状態の悪い馬場で良い成績を残している馬であれば、その馬は悪場でも強い可能性がありますし、逆に、著しく成績が悪いデータの馬であれば予想の候補から外すという指針にもなるでしょう。
過去のデータを基にするということは、当日や出走前のギリギリで見るので時間が足りないと思います。
そのため、あらかじめ天候が悪くなる・雨が降るなどが分かっている時に役立つ方法です。
騎手に注目する
馬の能力ももちろん大事ですが、それと同時に騎手の能力も非常に重要です。
騎手によって、馬のスピードやスタミナのコントロールが上手い下手という差があり、馬場の状態が悪い時は特にその差が如実に表れます。
特に、経験の豊富な騎手や過去に騎乗している馬、G1などの重賞で輝かしい戦績を残している騎手がいて、かつ悪天候でも能力が高い馬に騎乗して出走するレースなら注目すべきレースと言えるでしょう。
雨天時の芝とダートの違いは？
まず、馬場の芝とダートの違いは、芝については、そのままではありますが走るコースが土の上に芝がある状態もので、ダートは走るコースの地面が砂であるという違いがあります。
日本では芝が主流でスピード重視の馬が強く、アメリカはダートが主流でスタミナやパワーのある馬が強い傾向にあるなどという特徴があります。
他にも、雨天時のレース予想において重要となる違いは、
「芝の場合、スピードよりもパワーを重視」
「ダートの場合はパワーよりもスピードを重視」
というように、前述で触れている違いとは逆の性質になるということです。
簡単に言ってしまえば、雨天の時のレースでは、普段スピードに特化した馬は芝では思うように力を発揮できないが、ダートなら力を発揮しやすいということになります。
これについては、水を含んだ芝で走る場合は普段よりも力・スタミナを多く使わなければならないということに対し、ダートは砂なので水が含まれていたとしても芝や通常時のダートに比べると足を取られるということが少なく、馬にとっては走りやすい状態になるからです。
重要なのは雨ではない！？
雨天によるレースは予想が難しく、また、レースそのものが荒れる可能性があるなど、雨が降ると色々な面で競馬をすることが難しく感じてしまいます。
しかし、実は雨が降ったからといって普段の予想の考え方や元々考えてた予想を無理矢理変えたり慌てて変更したりする必要はありません。
重要なのは、雨が降っているということよりも、「雨がいつ頃から降り始めてどれぐらいの量の雨が降っていたのか」ということです。
例えば、レース直前に雨が降った場合は、正直その雨のせいで馬場が大きく変化することはほぼないと言えます。
逆に、レース前日から当日の少し前まで降り続いていた、などという場合は馬場の状態は最悪だろうと考えられます。
このように、雨が降っている＝「雨」ということだけに捉われてしまうのではなく、雨が降っている、または降っていたという事実の前後を考えて、「馬場の状態」を必ず確認するようにしましょう。
稍重程度の状態なら普段通りの予想
重・不良状態ならセオリー通りの買い方は通用しない
馬場の状態によって予想を変えていく必要があると言えるでしょう。
雨天でレースが中止になる条件
競馬は、雨が降ったからといってレースが中止になることはほとんどありません。
雨といっても、小降りなのか土砂降りなのか、など降り方によっては中止の場合はあるのでは？と思われるかもしれませんが、基本的には雨だけの悪天候であれば、どんな降り方であっても中止になることはほぼないと言えるでしょう。
では、どのような状況になったら中止になるのか？主な理由として、以下の3つが挙げられるでしょう。
台風
降雪
濃霧
これらの理由がレースの中止になる一番の理由としては、「大きな事故に繋がる原因になり得るから」だと言えます。
※上記は自然災害級の悪天候による中止例ですが、それ以外にも、出走ゲートの故障・券売等の機械的故障による中止事例もあります。
台風などの豪雨+強風といった悪天候の場合、交通機関の乱れが起こる可能性もあり、高速道路等の交通機関に制限がかかってしまい、出走馬や騎手が現地にいけない、などの理由もあります。
雪や濃霧に関しては、出走中の視界が悪くなり馬や騎手にとって命の危険が高くなることがあったり、雪が積もれば単純に走ることができないということ理由に中止になることが多いです。
雨天でレースが中止になったらどうなるの？
もしもレースが中止になったらどうなるのかと言いますと、まずは馬券購入済みのレースが中止になった場合には購入額の払い戻しが行われます。
その上で、中止になったレースは「代替開催」として、翌日・別日に改めて中止分のレースが開催されます。
もしも、中止されたレースが、すでに一日を通して何レースか行われた場合にも同様の扱いになります。
また、代替開催では中止レースで出馬していた内容が変更になる場合もあります。
いずれにせよ、余ほどのことがない限り、雨でだけが理由にレースが中止になるというケースは滅多にないと思って問題ありません。
まとめ
以上雨天時に競馬をやる場合に『理解しておくべきこと』や『抑えておくべきポイント』などを紹介しました。
競馬はよほどの雨が降らない限り中止にはなりません。
なので、今回紹介した雨天時に抑えるべきポイント3選を雨天時の競馬に活かしてみてください。
・先行馬を軸に考える
・過去のデータを確認する
・騎手に注目する
最後までお読みいただきありがとうございました。
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