「重賞以外の平場レースも予想してみたい」
「平場レースの予想でコツとかあるの？」
「平場のレースを予想して競馬を楽しみたい」
このように思っている方も多いでしょう。
そこで今回は『平場レースの魅力と予想に活かすポイント4選』をご紹介します。
この記事を読めば、すぐに平場レースを予想したくなるでしょう。
ぜひ最後まで読んで明日からの予想に活かしてください。
平場とは
そもそも平場レースとは何かを説明していきましょう。
まず競馬には大きく分けて『一般競走』と『特別競走』の2種類があります。
その中でも平場レースと呼ばれるのが『一般競走』です。
一般競走でも下記の3種類があります。
・条件下レース
・未勝利戦
・新人戦
この３レースが主に平場と呼ばれるレースです。
ではそれぞれを詳しく説明していきましょう。
条件下レース
条件下レースとは3歳1勝クラスや3歳以上2勝クラスのような名が付いてるレースです。
未勝利戦や固有のレース名を持つレース以外になります。
未勝利戦や新馬戦を勝ち上がった馬が1勝クラスに挑戦する事が可能です。
未勝利戦
未勝利戦とは新馬戦に勝てない馬が挑戦するレースです。
3歳未勝利戦が最後のレースとなります。
開催時期は9月第1週目までに行われることが多いですが、3歳未勝利戦でも勝てなかった場合は、概ね『障害レースに転向』『地方競馬に移籍』『引退』の3つから選ばなければなりません。
新馬戦（メイクデビュー）
新馬戦とは初めてレースに馬が出走数るクラスです。
このレースで勝つことができれば次のクラスに進むことができますが、勝てなかった場合は未勝利戦で戦うことになります。
伝説のディープインパクトやアーモンドアイであっても必ず新馬戦からスタートします。
平場以外のレースとは？
では平場レース以外ではどのようなレースがあるかみていきましょう。
・重賞レース
・〇〇特別レース
上記の2つをそれぞれ説明しています。
重賞レース
重賞レースとは有馬記念やジャパンカップなど特別競走の中でも特に賞金が高いレースで競馬を長年やられている方なら誰しもが知っているレースですね。
重賞レースには全ての競走馬が平等に参加できるわけではありません。
重賞レースは全てのレースの中で最高峰に位置付けられるレースと認識しておきましょう。
〇〇特別レース
特別レースとはレース名に〇〇特別といった地名の名前がついたレースが多いです。
重賞レースも特別レースに含まれますが、平場レースに比べて賞金が高くなるため力のある馬が集まりやすいレースとなっています。
平場のレースは必ず見た方がいい理由
上記でも説明したように伝説のディープインパクトなど競馬未経験者でも聞いたことあるような馬でも新人戦で必ずデビューします。
平場レースで結果を出していけば将来は重賞レースに参加することになるでしょう。
そのような馬を早い段階で見つける事ができれば、今後の予想に活かすことも可能になってきます。
なので平場レースはレベルが低いと思われがちですが、のちに有名になる馬も平場を経験するので将来の名馬を見つけるレースとしてとても重要です。
平場がオススメの理由
平場レースで的中率を上げられるようになれば、大きなメリットが出てきます。
考えられることは、レーススケジュールを見ると分かりますが1日のほとんどが平場レースです。
なので、平場レースの的中率を上げることができれば、その後の重賞レースに備えて資金作りすることができます。
また重賞レースではトップレベルの競走馬は出走するため実力が拮抗していますが、平場レースでは実力差がはっきりしてる場合が多いです。
そのため、平場レースの予想は人気に逆らわず1番人気や2番人気馬を軸にすればいいので予想もしやすいのも大きなメリットと言えます。
平場レースを予想する時のポイント4選
1日のほとんどを締めている平場レースで的中率を上げることが重要だとわかっていただけたと思います。
そこで平場レースを予想する時のポイントを4選紹介していきます。
今回紹介するポイントは下記の4つです。
・血統を活かす
・調教を活かす
・レースを選定して予想する
・騎手の変更に注目する
それぞれを説明していきます。
血統を活かす
平場レースでは、新馬戦や未勝利戦など実績が少ない馬がは多く出走しています。
そのため、今までの実績から予想することは極めて難しいでしょう。
なので、情報の少ない平場レースではまず血統を意識して予想するのがオススメです。
競馬はサラブレッドスポーツとも言われるほど血統が重要となってきます。
そこで注目すべき血統を紹介していきます。
まずは今回消化する血統をしっかり抑えておきましょう。
サンデーサイレンス産駒
サンデーサイレンス産駒の特徴として、芝、ダートまた距離問わず活躍している馬が多いです。
長距離から短距離まで合計78個のG1タイトルも獲得しています。
現在ではサンデーサイレンス産駒が種牡馬として活躍しているので平場レースでは注目の血統です。
ディープインパクト産駒
次はディープインパクト産駒です。
ディープインパクトは歴代最強馬としても有名でしたが種牡馬としても活躍しています。
特徴としては、若い時期から当確を表す馬が多いです。
またサンデーサイレンス産駒と同様芝、ダートまた距離問わず活躍しています。
2016年は牝馬クラシックを異なる3頭で完全制覇もしているくらいディープインパクト産駒は強いことで有名です。
現役で出走している馬は少なくなってきましたが、今でも注目の血統で間違いないでしょう・
キングカメハメハ産駒
上記でも紹介したディープインパクト産駒にも負けず劣らずの名馬を生み出しているのがキングカメハメハ産駒です。
特徴として芝、ダート問わずですが、マイルから中距離に適性が多いと言われています。
キングマンボの血筋を引いている為、馬場状態にも左右されない産駒が多いことでも有名です。
ロードカナロア産駒
最後に注目するのが、キングカメハメハ産駒の代表でもあるロードカナロアです。
中距離での活躍が期待できると言われております。
また2018年には史上最強牝馬として牝馬三冠を達成したアーモンドアイが注目を集め、ロードカナロア産駒は今後注目すべき血統です。
調教を活かす
何度も言っていますが平場レースでは情報が少なく実績もないため調教も非常に重要なポイントです。
3歳未勝利戦など能力が低い競走馬が集まっているレースでも調教次第では十分上位に入線する可能性が高くなるでしょう。
なので、まずは調教のできなどの情報を集めてみるのもいいと思います。
平場レースの調教を見抜くことができれば回収率も大幅アップも期待できます。
レースを選定して予想する
1日のレーススケジュールのほとんどが平場レースです。
なので全レース参加するのは得策とは言えません。
1番人気と2番人気の馬が圧倒的人気でオッズが低くなりすぎてしまいリスクが高くなるようであれば参加するのを避けたほうがいいレースです。
また人気馬が不在でどの出走馬にも平等に人気があり荒れそうな場合も避けてもいいでしょう。
騎手の変更に注目する
最後は騎手の変更にも注目してください。
平場レースで出走馬自体の実力拮抗している場合は、騎手の力量次第で結果が大きく変わります。
騎手が変わることで一気に才能が開花することも珍しくありません。
また外国人の騎手に変わっている時にはさらに注目したほうがいいでしょう。
外国人騎手は馬を見る目に長けており、競走馬の特徴を見抜き大胆な作戦で勝利することも多いです。
まとめ
以上、平場レースを予想する時のポイント4選を紹介しました。
1日のレースでほとんどが平場レースであるため、平場レースを攻略することは競馬自体を攻略すると言っても過言ではありません。
今回紹介した内容は下記の通りです。
・血統を活かす
・調教を活かす
・レースを選定して予想する
・騎手の変更に注目する
ぜひ明日からの予想に活かしてみてください。
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