「単勝だけで競馬は稼げるのか？」
「リスクを抑えて競馬をやりたい」
「単勝馬券は何を気をつければいいの？」
競馬において単勝は、一部の競馬ファンには根強い人気を誇る投票法の１つです。
そこでこの記事では「リスクを抑えて単勝だけで競馬をやりたい」という人のために、詳しく解説していきます。
ぜひ最後まで読んでみてください。
単勝とは？
馬券投票の中でもっとも基本的なものが、1着馬を当てる『単勝』です。
1着と2着を当てなければならない馬連や馬単、1着〜3着を着順通りに当てる必要がある3連単などと比べて、予想も買い方もかなりシンプルな馬券といえるでしょう。
もっと分かりやすく券種別で初心者オススメ度とその理由をまとめてみました。
| 馬券種類 | 初心者オススメ度 | 理由 |
| 単勝 | ★★★★★ | 1着となる1頭だけを予想するだけでいいので予想の仕方もシンプル |
| 複勝 | ★★★★★ | 3着までに入る馬を予想するので「単勝」よりも的中しやすいが、配当が低くなってしまう |
| 枠連 | ★★★★ | 出走数が多い時には有効だが2頭選ばなければいけないしかし初心者で高配当を狙うなら枠連 |
| 枠単 | ★★★ | 枠連よりも順位を予想しなければいけないので難易度が上がる |
| ワイド | ★★★★ | 3着まで入る馬を2頭選ぶ必要があるが、初心者でも比較的的中しやすい |
| 馬連 | ★★ | 枠連は枠次第では計4頭選べたが、馬連は馬番を選ぶため予想が難しい |
| 馬単 | ★★ | ここからは的中難易度が跳ね上がるため初心者にはオススメしない |
| 3連複 | ★ | 初心者が手を出してはいけない券種 |
| 3連単 | ★ | 初心者が最も手を出してはいけない券種、玄人でも的中させるのが難しい |
単勝で稼ぐための３つのコツ
次に単勝で稼ぐ可能性を広げるコツについて紹介していきます。
単勝で稼ぐ可能性を広げるコツは以下の３つです。
・人気薄の馬を狙う
・単勝オッズが5倍以上を狙う
・基本的には1点買い
ではそれぞれを詳しく説明していきましょう。
人気薄の馬を狙う
まず１つ目は人気薄の馬を狙う事です。
「えっ？一番人気じゃないの？」と思いますよね？、ですが単勝で一番人気の馬はオッズが低くなり、平均にすると1.5倍〜2.3倍くらいになってきます。
的中したい人たちが1番人気の馬を買うのは当然の事です。
しかし、1番人気の勝率は33％しかありません。
つまり1番人気の馬をずっと買っていても3回に1回しか的中しない計算になります。
【検証】中央競馬3会場36レース「単勝」の結果
2023年7月1日の中央競馬「福島」「中京」「函館」の3会場で開催された計36レースの結果を見ていきましょう。
ーー 検証内容 ーー
・単勝の勝率
・的中平均オッズ
・単勝の回収率
【2023年7月1日 福島競馬場】
1番人気1着回数 4回
単勝勝率 33.3％
的中平均オッズ 340円
単勝回収率 113％
| 7/1 福島競馬場 | 1番人気着順 | 単勝オッズ |
| 1R | 8着 | |
| 2R | 4着 | |
| 3R | 2着 | |
| 4R | 3着 | |
| 5R | 3着 | |
| 6R | 1着 | 440円 |
| 7R | 3着 | |
| 8R | 1着 | 400円 |
| 9R | 7着 | |
| 10R | 1着 | 290円 |
| 11R | 4着 | |
| 12R | 1着 | 230円 |
【2023年7月1日 中京競馬場】
1番人気1着回数 4回
単勝勝率 33.3％
的中平均オッズ 272円
単勝回収率 90％
| 7/1 中京競馬場 | 1番人気着順 | 単勝オッズ |
| 1R | 1着 | 200円 |
| 2R | 3着 | |
| 3R | 3着 | |
| 4R | 2着 | |
| 5R | 1着 | 200円 |
| 6R | 4着 | |
| 7R | 1着 | 390円 |
| 8R | 4着 | |
| 9R | 4着 | |
| 10R | 2着 | |
| 11R | 1着 | 300円 |
| 12R | 3着 |
【2023年7月1日 函館競馬場】
1番人気1着回数 6回
単勝勝率 50％
的中平均オッズ 231円
単勝回収率 114％
| 7/1 函館競馬場 | 1番人気着順 | 単勝オッズ |
| 1R | 1着 | 280円 |
| 2R | 1着 | 280円 |
| 3R | 4着 | |
| 4R | 2着 | |
| 5R | 1着 | 150円 |
| 6R | 2着 | |
| 7R | 2着 | |
| 8R | 1着 | 230円 |
| 9R | 8着 | |
| 10R | 2着 | |
| 11R | 1着 | 190円 |
| 12R | 1着 | 260円 |
【2023年7月1日 平均結果】
1番人気1着回数 4.6回
単勝勝率 38.6％
的中平均オッズ 280円
単勝回収率 105％
検証の結果、7月1日の単勝勝率は「38％」と的中平均オッズは「280円」でした。
先ほど単勝勝率は「33％」、単勝オッズの平均は「1.5倍〜2.3倍」と説明しましたが、比較的近い数値となります。
しかし、そのオッズで3回に1回しか的中しないのであればマイナスになる可能性が非常に高くなります。
なので稼ぐ可能性を広げるのであれば、1番人気の馬を避けて予想する必要があるという事です。
単勝オッズが5倍以上を狙う
単勝のみで稼ぎたいのであれば、オッズが3倍を切るような馬券は買わないようにしましょう。
例えばオッズが2倍のオッズの単勝を買う場合、利益を出すためには2回に1回は的中しないと利益にはなりません。
なので3倍以下のオッズで利益を上げるには的中率が50％以上必要です。
的中率50％は競馬を長年やっている方でも非常に難しい数字になるので、初心者の方には、ほぼ不可能に近い的中率となります。
しかし、単勝オッズが10倍以上あるような馬をひたすら買うのはリスクが高すぎるので、オススメの狙い目は単勝オッズが5倍〜10倍の馬です。
単勝オッズが5倍であれば、5回に1回的中すれば利益にする事ができるので、初心者の方でもかなり難易度が低くなります。
基本的に1点買い
単勝を買う場合、最大18点まで買う事ができます。
しかし、単勝で利益を上げるためには基本的には1頭に絞ってください。
単勝オッズは他の券種に比べると的中率が高い分オッズは低くなります。
なので、複数点購入してしまうと回収率が落ちてしまい結果的にマイナスになってしまうからです。
しかし、どうしても予想が難しく複数点買う場合は『2点まで』などと自分のルールをしっかりと決めておくようにしましょう。
3頭以上選ばないと難しいようなレースは的中したとしても利益にならないと思い、そのレースには参加しない方がいいです。
基本的には単勝オッズで購入する場合は1点買いがオススメとなります。
単勝で馬券を買う３つのメリット
では次に単勝で馬券を買うメリットをご紹介します。
メリットは以下の3つです
・初心者でも簡単に予想できる
・控除率が低い
・少額で競馬を楽しめる
それぞれを説明していきます。
初心者でも簡単に予想できる
単勝馬券の最大のメリットの１つは、3連単や3連複などに比べて非常にシンプルに予想する事ができる点です。
単勝は単純に1着に来る可能性が高い馬を選べばいいだけなので、初心者でも簡単に予想する事ができます。
逆に3連単や3連複の場合は、1着〜3着までに入る可能性がある馬を選ばなくていけません。
さらに選ぶ馬が多くなればなるほど、予想が難しく馬券代も高くなってしまいます。
| 馬券種類 | 18頭立て | 10頭立て |
| 単勝 | 18通り | 10通り |
| 複勝 | 18通り | 10通り |
| ワイド | 153通り | 45通り |
| 枠連 | 36通り | 36通り |
| 馬連 | 153通り | 45通り |
| 馬単 | 306通り | 90通り |
| 3連複 | 816通り | 120通り |
| 3連単 | 4896通り | 720通り |
この表を見て貰えば分かりますが、18頭立て3連複の場合は全部で816通りの買い目があり、3連単に関しては4896通りもの買い目があるのです。
しかし単勝であれば、当たり前ですが18頭立てで18通りしかありません。
18分1を的中させればいいので的中率も非常に高くなってきます。
控除率が低い
競馬には控除というものが存在します。
控除とは、馬券を購入した総額から運営費や国庫に収める税金の事です。
なので的中しても100％の金額が戻ってくる訳ではありません。
下記の表はJRAの控除率と払い戻し率を表した表です。
| 馬券種類 | 控除率 | 払い戻し率 |
| 単勝 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 複勝 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| ワイド | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| 枠連 | 発売なし | 発売なし |
| 馬連 | 22.5％ | 77.5% |
| 馬単 | 25％ | 75.0% |
| 3連複 | 25% | 72.5% |
| 3連単 | 27.5% | 70.0% |
この表の通り単勝は控除率が20％で済みます。
3連単になると最も高い控除率は27.5％です。
つまり、的中したとしても3連単は配当金にあてられる金額が少なく、単勝は最も金額が多いという事になります。
少額で競馬を楽しめる
単勝は複数の買い方が基本となる3連単や3連複、馬単、馬連、ワイドなどの券種と違い購入点数が増えいない分、少額からでも楽しめるのがメリットです。
初心者が最初から多くの点数を賭けるのはリスクが高いので、単勝は初心者の方にもオススメの券種と言えます。
単勝で馬券を買うデメリット
メリットしか感じない単勝ですが、デメリットも存在します。
デメリットは以下の2点です。
・オッズが低い
・トリガミになる可能性がある
ではそれぞれを説明していきます。
オッズが低い
3連複や3連単では100万や1000万近くの高額配当が望めるのが最大の魅力でもあり、競馬の醍醐味です。
また、馬連や馬単でも万馬券が数回出現する事もあります。
しかし、単勝で万馬券を出す事はごく稀で、基本的には数千円を超える程度の配当金です。
このように他の券種と比較すると単勝馬券は的中率が高い分、非常にオッズが低くなります。
競馬で一攫千金を狙っているような方にはオススメできません。
単勝は徐々に資金を増やしていくのに適してる券種です。
トリガミになる可能性がある
これは複数点数を買った場合ですが、単勝ではトリガミに一番気をつけなければいけません。
例えば、3頭の馬を単勝で100円ずつ購入した場合、馬券代は300円になります。
的中した馬が単勝オッズ2倍のときは払い戻し金額が200円になるため、的中したにも関わらず100円マイナス収支となってしまうのです。
馬券の点数を増やせば増やすほど的中率は上がりますが、同時にトリガミになる可能性も高くなるので注意してください。
先ほども紹介しましたが、基本的には1点買いでトリガミを避けながらプラス収支を目指しましょう。
まとめ
以上、リスクを抑えて単勝だけで稼ぐ可能性を広げる方法と単勝馬券のメリット・デメリットを紹介しました。
単勝で稼ぐ可能性を広げるコツは
・人気薄の馬を狙う
・単勝オッズが5倍以上を狙う
・基本は1点買い
です。
単勝で利益を上げるためにはオッズが非常に重要になります。
なので、こまめにオッズを確認して馬券を購入するようにしてください。
単勝は1着を予想するだけのシンプルな券種となっているので、競馬初心者の方は是非試してみてください。
コメント
連複
いつになっても回収率上がらない。
連複はいつになっても回収率上がらない。儲からない。
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