「競馬のハンデ戦って何？」
「荒れるって聞いたけど本当？」
「初心者でも高配当が当てられるのか知りたい！」
上記のような疑問を持たれている人も多いかと思います。
今回は、競馬におけるハンデ戦について、本当にハンデ戦は荒れやすいのか？ハンデ戦の時は高配当に期待ができるのか？
など、ハンデ戦の詳細を紹介・解説していきます。
競馬のハンデ戦とは？
ハンデ戦は、「平地・ダート・障害」すべてに設けられており、各競走馬に斤量差があればそのレースはハンデ戦となります。
ちなみに、斤量差とは競走馬がレースに出走する際に、「背負う負担重量」のことです。
斤量は、「騎手の体重+騎手の身につけている物(服・プロテクターなど)や所定の馬具(鞍など)＝斤量」という計算で算出されます。
なぜハンデ戦を行うかというと、実力差が明確になっている競走馬同士の差を小さくすることが目的で、そのために斤量差をあえて設けるような形がとられています。
ハンデ戦の種類
日本で開催されるレースは、「グレード制」という格式で分類されています。
大きく分けて格式が高い順から「G1→G2→G3→その他」です。
上記の種類の中から、G1以外のレースでハンデ戦が行われます。
・G2
・G3
・その他
以下では、ハンデ戦の対象となるグレードとそのレースの詳細について解説していきます。
G2
まずはG1よりも1段階下のグレードであるG2です。
G2レースでハンデ戦が行われるものは、「日経新聞杯」「目黒記念」「アルゼンチン共和国杯」の3種類となっています。
この3種のうち、「日経新聞杯」と「目黒記念」は、どちらも2000メートルを超える長距離レースになるため、斤量が重い馬にとっては負担が大きくなります。
G3
G3でハンデ戦が対象となるレースについては、有名どころで言えば年明けに行われる「京都金杯」や「中山金杯」を含む「全24レース」が対象となっています。
G3では非常に多くのレースが対象にハンデ戦が行われますが、中でも「フェアリーステークス」は牝馬限定のハンデ戦で、毎年万馬券がでるほどの荒れるレースとして有名です。
また、夏(7月)に開催される「ラジオNIKKEI賞」では、ハンデ戦重賞レースの中で唯一3歳馬限定のハンデ戦となっています。
その他
G2・G3のようなグレードレース以外(グレードレース以下)にもハンデ戦は開催されます。
グレードレース以下の種類ですと、「オープン特別」や「新馬戦」「未勝利戦」などが挙げられますが、いずれも各競走馬の実力に大きな差がないため、斤量によるハンデでレースの結果が大きく変わりやすい・荒れやすいと言われています。
ハンデ戦が荒れやすい理由
「ハンデ戦は荒れやすい」というのは、競馬ファンの間では周知のことです。
では、なぜハンデ戦は荒れやすいと言われているのか？その理由について解説していきましょう。
競走馬に課せられる斤量が1キロ変わるとタイムにしておよそ0.2秒の差がでると言われています。
秒数だけで考えれば0.2秒なんて大した数値には思えないかもしれませんが、拮抗した実力、拮抗したレース展開であればこのたった0.2秒の差で勝ち負けが変わってしまいます。
この実力差を強制的に縮めることが目的とされているのがハンデ戦です。
例えば1頭の競走馬の実力が他の競走馬と2秒〜3秒近くタイムに差があるとしましょう。
この馬に1キロほど斤量を増加させると、他の馬との差が縮まります。
このように、圧倒的な実力を持つ馬でも、斤量ハンデを設けられることによって他の馬との差が少なくなり、仮に実力的には1番人気の馬であっても、その馬を軸としたレース展開は読みにくくなり、斤量の軽い馬に負けるという展開も多々あります。
こうした理由から、ハンデ戦は荒れやすいと言われています。
初心者には不向き
ハンデ戦は荒れやすいからといって、競馬初心者の人がいきなり手を出すのは危険です。
先述の通り、ハンデ戦では人気の馬や実力の高い馬にマイナスハンデを設けることが基本となります。
その中で、パドックや事前の予想データだけで的中させることは、競馬上級者でも難しいと言えるでしょう。
もちろん、初心者の人だけでなく、堅実に勝率や回収率を上げたい人にとってもハンデ戦はリスクが高いです。
競馬を始めたばかりの人であれば、まずは通常レースに慣れたうえで、ハンデ戦はどのような展開・結果が起きているのかを調べてみたり、実際に観てみて挑戦してください。
ハンデ戦の予想方法
ハンデ戦を完璧に読み切ることは至難の業ですが、それでもある程度のポイントを抑えて予想をして、理論を基に的中の期待値を上げることはできます。
以下では、ハンデ戦で予想をする際に重要なポイントについて解説していきます。
・斤量の確認
・高齢の競走馬は避ける
・3ハロンが早い競走馬は要チェック
・斤量が軽すぎる馬は注意
斥量の確認
まずは何と言っても各馬の斤量を確認することをしましょう。
ハンデ戦の肝となるのは斤量で、斤量によるハンデが設けられるのは「過去の実績からもっとも実績を残している馬」にトップハンデが科せられ、そこから各馬の実績に応じて斤量を減らしていきます。
斤量の差は、各馬の実力に直結すると言っても過言ではないほどに大きな影響を及ぼすので、斤量差＝実力差と思っておいて問題ありません。
ちなみに、斤量が重い馬の実力が他の馬と比べても圧倒的に強く、斤量の差をものともせず勝ちきれるであろうという予想ができそうな馬が出走するのであれば、その馬を軸にしても良いでしょう。
高齢の競走馬は避ける
斤量が重いかつ、高齢の馬は予想から外す、またはマイナス評価の予想とした方が良いでしょう。
どんなに過去の実績が良くても、年齢が高い馬は他の馬と比べて能力が劣ります。
特に6歳～7歳を超える馬の斤量が一番重く、他の馬は3歳〜4歳と若い馬ばかりであれば注意が必要です。
3ハロンが速い競走馬は要チェック
3ハロンとは、「ゴールから逆算して600メートル(3ハロン)」のことを指します。
要するに、ゴールまで残り600メートルの直線が速い馬は要チェックということです。
この3ハロンの間に馬はもてる力のすべてを発揮すると言われているので、上り3ハロンはその馬の全力疾走をした時のタイムと思っておくと良いでしょう。
それに加えて、ある程度斤量が軽い馬の実績をチェックして、実績良好・ハンデは軽い・3ハロンのタイムが早い、といったような馬が出走するのであれば予想に組み込んでみても良いと言えます。
最後の直線が早ければ馬券に絡んでくる可能性も高く、時には予想以上の高配当的中を得ることができます。
斥量が軽すぎる馬は注意
ハンデ戦予想に絶対欠かせない斤量確認ですが、「トップハンデと比べて〇〇キロ軽いこの馬を紐にして馬券を買おう」というような買い方には注意しましょう。
斤量差が大きければ大きいほど、斤量が重い馬に比べて軽い馬はそもそもの実力がかなり劣っているという現実もあります。
仮に、数キロ程度しか斤量の差がないのであれば、正直そこまで大きな差とは言い難く、もとから実力ある馬との差を斤量だけで埋めるのは難しいと言えます。
なので、どんなに斤量が軽いとはいえ、トップハンデの馬と比較して明らかに実力差がある場合は買い目から外しておくのが無難です。
おすすめの買い方は買い目点数を増やす
これまでに解説したハンデ戦の予想ポイントをもとに、もしもハンデ戦で勝負をするなら「買い目点数を増やす」という買い方がおすすめです。
おすすめの理由ですが、通常レースに比べて当てることがそもそも難しいハンデ戦だからこそ、買い目を絞ってしまうと普段よりもいっそう的中させる確率が下がります。
もちろん、やみくもに買い目点数を増やせば良いというわけでもないですし、買い目点数が増えるということはその分投資額も増えるので、的中したとしてもガミる可能性も大いにあります。
しかし、多少なりとも自信のあるハンデ戦や、比較的予想がし易いハンデ戦で勝負をするなら、荒れるかもしれない・高配当が当たるかもしれない、という点も視野に入れつつ買い目点数を増やして買うと良いでしょう。
まとめ
ハンデ戦とは、各競走馬の過去のレース実績に応じて、馬に負担させる重量によってハンデを設けるレースです。
馬個体の実力差を人工的に埋めるので、人気の馬が馬券に絡むことも多々あり、ハンデ戦では大穴が的中してレースが大荒れすると言われています。
ハンデ戦では、普段の馬の実力だけでは予想が難しいので、競馬知識がまだ足りない・競馬を始めたばかり、という初心者の人は無理に手を出さない方が良いです。
ある程度予想の材料が集められるレース、予想がし易かったり圧倒的な斤量差や実力差があるハンデ戦であれば狙う価値があります。
ハンデ戦で一勝負する時は、3ハロンの早い馬を狙ってみたり、買い目点数多めで購入してみたりなど、工夫やデータを駆使して行ってみてください。
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