「競馬のペースは毎回一緒なの？」
「誰がペースを作ってるの？」
「全てハイペースじゃダメなの？」
競馬の知識が付いてくると上記のような疑問が出てくるのではないでしょうか？
ペースはレース前半のタイムと後半のタイムの差によって決まりますが、前半が後半より遅ければ「スロー」、前半が後半より早ければ「ハイ」となり、大体同じであれば「ミドル」になります。
ペースがわかればレースの内容を理解することができるので、競馬のレース像を掴むためにも欠かせない知識と言えるでしょう。
今回は冒頭で述べたような思いを抱いている方に、競馬はどのようにしてペースが作られていくのか、ペースにはどのような種類があるのか、詳しく解説していきます。
ペースはどうやって作られる？
まず、競馬のペースはどうやって作られるのか知っておくことが必要です。
レースのペース作りは基本的に序盤から先頭に立つ逃げ馬の役目になります。
競走馬は先頭を走る馬の速度に寄っていく傾向があるので、先頭を走る馬がハイペースなレース展開をするなら自然とハイペースなレースになりますし、逆の場合も当然あり得ます。
このペースは逃げ馬の頭数で決まるのですが、逃げ馬が2頭以内ならスローペースとなりやすいです。
逆に4頭以上いる場合は逃げ馬同士が争いハイペースになります。
ここで注意が必要なのは、あくまでペースの主導権を握っているのは騎手であるということです。
仮にハイペースが苦手な逃げ馬が先頭を走っていたとしても、騎手がハイペースに持ち込みたいと考えればペースは上がる可能性が高くなります。
ペースの考え方は、競走馬の脚質と騎手の考え方や特徴も入れて考えることが重要です。
逃げ馬以外がペースを作る場合
上記で解説した逃げ馬がペースを作るパターンではない場合を解説します。
レースそのものに逃げ馬がいない場合や逃げを好む騎手がいないケースも十分にありますが、その場合はペースが遅くなる傾向があります。
この場合は序盤でスピードが上がりづらいレース展開が続くため、スロースペースになることが多いです。
また、短距離レースの場合はスタミナを気にしなくていいので、序盤から速度を出させる騎手が多いため、ミドルペースになります。
以上のようにレースの特性でペースが変わることも少なくないので、ペースを作り上げる要因は全て理解しておくと質の高いレース予想ができるでしょう。
ペースは大きく分けて3つのタイプに分類される
競馬のレースは、大きく分けて以下3種類のペースに分類されます。
・スローペース
・ハイペース
・ミドルペース
この3つの分類で大まかなレースの全体像をイメージすることができ、それをさらに細分化することによって、レースの本質へと近づけることが可能です。
1つずつ解説していきます。
スローペース
前半のタイムが後半のタイムより1秒以上遅いペースのことを「スローペース」と言います。
スローペースの特徴は、前半よりも後半でより多くの力を使用することです。
前半のペースが遅い分、体力を温存することができ、後半で多くの力を発揮することができます。
多少スタミナに不安のある競走馬であっても、勝負することができるのがスローペースの特徴です。
また、スローペースを更に細分化すると以下の2つに分類されます。
・右肩上がり型
・ヨーイドン型
上記2つも併せて解説していきます。
右肩上がり型
レース後半から徐々にペースが上がっていくスローペースのことを「右肩上がり型」と言います。
このレースで求められる能力としては”長く良い脚を持続させる能力”です。
底力を要求されることになり、瞬発力だけに特化していてはいけません。
ヨーイドン型
ラストの瞬発力勝負に特化したスローペースを「ヨーイドン型」と言います。
このレースで求められる能力としては”瞬発力に秀でる能力”です。
ほとんどの競走馬が体力を余しているため、スプリント能力だけが求められます。
ハイペース
前半のタイムが後半より1秒以上早いペースのことを「ハイペース」と言います。
ハイペースの特徴は、レース後半よりもレース前半で力の消費が大きいということです。
レース前半で体力を消費するため、後半に体力を温存することが難しく、よりスタミナがある競走馬や底力に秀でた競走馬が力を発揮しやすくなります。
また、ハイペースも更に細分化すると以下の2種類に分類されます。
・直線手前スロー型
・一本調子型
こちらも解説していきます。
直線手前スロー型
レース後半で息が上がり、ラストで再加速するハイペースを「直前手前スロー型」と言います。
前半のハイペースで消費されていた力の補填をレース後半に入ったところで行い、多少の余力を確保します。
ラストで再度一気に加速をするので、前半のハイペースに耐えられるスタミナと早めのラストスパートをかけられる瞬発力が求められます。
一本調子型
途中で息が入らないハイペースを「一本調子型」と言います。
途中で息が入らないということは、前半で消費した力を補填する期間が一切なく、ガス欠状態で走ることになります。
なので、スタミナの絶対値はもちろんスタミナが切れた後の底力が求められます。
ミドルペース
前半と後半のタイム差が1秒以内のペースを「ミドルペース」と言います。
ハイペースやスローペースに比べると前半と後半にタイム差がなく、全体的な総合力が問われるのが特徴です。
総合力が高く実力馬と呼ばれる競走馬が勝ちやすく、逆に決まったウィークポイントがある競走馬には厳しいレース展開になることが多くなります。
このミドルペースも細分化すると以下の2種類に分けられます。
・緩急型
・一定型
こちらも解説していきます。
緩急型
レース中の最高ラップと最低ラップの差が1秒以上ある平均ペースのことを「緩急型」と言います。
道中の遅い部分と早い部分があるのが特徴で、ハイペースの直線手前スロー型と似たタイプです。
一定型
レース中の最高ラップと最低ラップの差が1秒以内である平均ペースのことを「一定型」と言います。
淡々としたペースが特徴で、一般的にイメージされる平均ペースとも言われています。
ペースにアップダウンが少ないので、無駄な体力を消費しにくいのが特徴です。
上がりが特別早くなることはないので、一定のスピードを持続する能力や長くいい脚を使うことが求められます。
各ペースで有利に働く競走馬
続いて各ペースで有利に働く競走馬のタイプをそれぞれ解説していきます。
・スローペース
・ハイペース
・ミドルペース
それぞれ見ていきましょう。
スローペース
スローペースな展開に向いているのは”逃げタイプ”で先頭を走れる競走馬です。
ほとんどのレースでは、先頭を取った逃げ馬で決着することが多いです。
特に、終盤まで後続を抑え込みラストスパートでさらに力を発揮できる逃げ馬が負けることはないでしょう。
逆に差し馬や追い込み馬にとって極めて不利な展開になるので、スローペースで勝つことは難しくなります。
ハイペース
ハイペースな展開に向いているのは”差し馬”です。
瞬発力と最低限のスタミナを兼ね揃えていれば有利にレースを進めることができます。
後半でもペースを落とさない豊富なスタミナを持っている逃げ馬や先行馬なら、勝ち切れる可能性も高くなります。
ミドルペース
ミドルペースの展開になった場合は単純に”強い競走馬”が勝ちやすくなります。
ペースに合った競走馬というより、総じて自力のある競走馬が有利に走れるのが特徴で、単純な結果になりやすいです。
単純なので予想も簡単そうに見えますが、競走馬の実力を完璧に見極めるのはプロの調教師でもほぼ不可能であるため、ミドルペースの予想が1番難しいとされています。
ミドルペースが予想されるレースでは、あらゆる角度から情報収集を行う必要があります。
まとめ
今回は競馬で見られるレースのペースについて解説しました。
ペースは大きくハイ・ミドル・ローの3つに分類でき、更にそこから各ペース2種類に分類されることがわかったかと思います。
今回紹介した内容を簡潔にまとめると、
・競馬のレースは3つのペースによって分類される
・序盤にスピードを上げられないか上げる必要がなければスローペースになる
・スローペースは”右肩上がり型”と”ヨーイドン型”に分けられ、先頭の馬が有利
・逃げ馬と先行馬で先頭争いが行われるとハイペースになる
・ハイペースは”直線手前スロー型”と”一本調子型”に分けられ、後方の馬が有利
・出走馬の総合力が求められるのがミドルペース
・ミドルペースは”緩急型”と”一定型”に分けられ、総合的な実力勝負になりやすい
ペースが変わるとレース自体の性質や有利な馬が変わってくるため、考え方を変える必要があるということが理解できたかと思います。
ペースを正確に予測することができれば、優位になる馬を見極めることができますし、勝率を上げることが可能になるかもしれません。
競馬におけるペースを掴んで、今後はレースの展開を予測してみましょう。
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